Monday, June 18, 2018

Brewers - Small Ball?

    Craig Counsell, Brewers Need to Play "Small Ball" Late in Games for Continued Success!


     It seems to me that the Brewers and Craig Counsell are sold on the new age analytics, the "money ball" type analytics if you will. I'm here to tell you that following the new age analytics will kill this team. First, the very action of making a baseball decision based on past statistics adds a different variable to the set of variables used to compile those very statistics. Changing the variables and expecting the same outcome is not only flawed logic it's going to be the end of this very talented team's season.



Josh Hader & Brewers Bull Pen put Team in Great 
Position to Play "Small Ball"

     The first problem with the Brewer's employing the "moneyball" strategy is that it means the Brewers will not play "small ball" or "sacrifice runners" to tack on insurance runs. While the statistics say that sacrificing runners doesn't offer any advantage over swinging away, the statistics don't isolate a single team with a certain set of players. That is to say that for every team that failed miserably at sacrificing runners and playing "small ball" there was a team that was great at the strategy. I would imagine that a team with speedy runners, guys who could bunt well and a shut down bullpen would execute the strategy well. Speedy runners and guys that can bunt well are probably obvious for the strategy to work well but if you add in Closing Pitchers that shut the door on the opponent after the 6th inning (Hader, Knebel), they put an immense pressure on an opposing team not to fall behind late!!  With the Brewers having the unique set of Hader and Knebel they should be scratching and clawing to get insurance runs. Getting those guys an extra run or two late in games is a recipe for great success and a recipe that the Brewers will need to employ if they are to go any farther than a wild card game loss this season!! 

     The Brewers had a chance to sweep the Cubs. Had they employed a "small ball" "sacrificing" style in the first game versus the Cubs they would have had 3 opportunities after the 5th inning to get a runner to 3rd base with less than two outs. Had just one batter hit a sacrifice fly of those 3 the Brewers would have had a 3-1 lead when Hader entered the game. Everybody blamed villar for dropping the tag out but had the Brewers had the insurance run they still win that game!!

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